With Spa only a week or so away and the data for the start of the season now well processed and understood it is worthy or a few words and maybe even a venture into predictions!
For me the real story throughout 2016 was that of Red Bull. I had felt early on they were looking like the number 2 team and as you can see from the Value analysis below they are pretty much there.
Red Bull Analysis 2016 Mid Season
It is mid season and I have reprojected all the target plots on the basis of revised end predictions as Red Bull were the only team that were exceeding their start season predicted finish. Therefore I recalculated on the basis of Red Bull finishing 2nd. I have also introduced a new plot too which I hope does not complicate the Value interpretation but feedback is always welcome. The extra plot is the target for the next place in the table so in the case of the Red Bull plot the dotted line is where they need to aim for 1st place. I have done it not because they could seriously win, but it provides some real context for their progress against the 2nd place line.
The image also shows the effect temporally of the switch of drivers following the Russian race. Despite Verstappen’s performance in Monaco, he has added nothing but value overall. I guess the guys at Red Bull have crystal balls?
Of course the move of Red Bull to 2nd is at the expense of Ferrari to 3rd. I have not published the Ferrari Value chart with the extra plot, but just with the reprojection you can see the context for their fall from grace:
They are only just hanging on to the 3rd place!Beyond the top 3 there is a story worth following in the 4th place battle; that of Force India and Williams. Williams have had a miserable season and I reckon Force India will be taking that 4th place either at Spa or not long after. What a great result for Force India but it does beg the question as to what Williams need to do to improve?