It’s always good to have 3 races worth of data in the bag. I think this is the first year in a long time where on the surface the season feels very different, well, if the media are to be believed.
It’s is different, but not so much as one would think when looking deeper into the data. Now the Value charts are available, including the breakdown by team, things are probably a little clearer. I think in summary the only big changes are a swap in fortunes between McLaren and Force India. The other shocker (although not that shocking when last seasons symptoms are taken into account) is the current Value of Williams. All this emboldens me to extend the model further to look deeper into the team dynamics and ‘casting’. I won’t burden this blog with my thoughts, but suffice to say when you have a car powered by Mercedes and designed by Paddy Lowe, where else can you look for the current results? Could the same be said for Force India? At least in that team we can make some year on year comparisons with the people? But further can it explain McLaren’s results too? They can’t blame the engine anymore and you can’t help feeling that they should be doing better than they are?
I have published the current team Value analysis charts on the basis of last years end positions (which is normal practice). However, ahead of the next race I will have to account for the change in fortunes for McLaren and Force India, it will just not be helpful to continue to publish them on the current assessed predictions.
So that just leaves with what is happening at the top? It is certainly closer than it has been, but I am not sure by that much. Whilst the data suggests Ferrari are in the lead by a very small margin, their trend is downwards on a fairly steady trajectory. Mercedes on the other hand are slowly rising race on race, which suggests on balance Mercedes will win overall, but it will be close.
So the readjusted places and targets for the remains of this half of the season (which really describes what the season should look like, a close flight going on for 1/2, closely followed by a one horse race for third, 2 horse races for 4th and 5th with a large gap back to the rest):
1st with 2nd for Reference – Ferrari
2nd aiming for 1st – Mercedes
3rd aiming for 2nd – Red Bull
4th aiming for 3rd – McLaren and Renault
5th aiming for 4th – Torro Rosso and Haas
Rest aiming for 5th – Sauber, Williams and Force India
And finally my end of season predictions having mulled the data over:
1st – Mercedes (just, it will be close)
2nd – Ferrari (see above)
3rd – Red Bull (confident, and closer to Ferrari than last year)
4th – Renault (confident)
5th – McLaren (confident)
6th – Haas (confident)
7th – Torro Rosso (confident)
8th – Force India (confident)
9th – Sauber (close to)
10th – Williams (just)