Category Archives: 2016

2016 Mid-Season Thoughts

Posted on by

With Spa only a week or so away and the data for the start of the season now well processed and understood it is worthy or a few words and maybe even a venture into predictions!

For me the real story throughout 2016 was that of Red Bull.  I had felt early on they were looking like the number 2 team and as you can see from the Value analysis below they are pretty much there.

Red Bull Analysis 2016 Mid Season

Red Bull Analysis 2016 Mid Season

It is mid season and I have reprojected all the target plots on the basis of revised end predictions as Red Bull were the only team that were exceeding their start season predicted finish.  Therefore I recalculated on the basis of Red Bull finishing 2nd.  I have also introduced a new plot too which I hope does not complicate the Value interpretation but feedback is always welcome.  The extra plot is the target for the next place in the table so in the case of the Red Bull plot the dotted line is where they need to aim for 1st place.  I have done it not because they could seriously win, but it provides some real context for their progress against the 2nd place line.

The image also shows the effect temporally of the switch of drivers following the Russian race.  Despite Verstappen’s performance in Monaco, he has added nothing but value overall.  I guess the guys at Red Bull have crystal balls?

Of course the move of Red Bull to 2nd is at the expense of Ferrari to 3rd.  I have not published the Ferrari Value chart with the extra plot, but just with the reprojection you can see the context for their fall from grace:

Analysis of Team Ferrari Value CoefficientThey are only just hanging on to the 3rd place!

Beyond the top 3 there is a story worth following in the 4th place battle; that of Force India and Williams.  Williams have had a miserable season and I reckon Force India will be taking that 4th place either at Spa or not long after.  What a great result for Force India but it does beg the question as to what Williams need to do to improve?

Post Bahrain Analysis

Posted on by

I am always cautious to say anything to definitive before the Spain event.  The numbers season on season suggest that that is when the technology and the teams start to settle.  On the assumption that no one is going to mess with qualifying further (who knows?) then it will remain the first analysis point.

However, it is an interesting season already and worthy of some comment.  This short blog will focus on:

  • Mercedes dominance
  • 2 car finishes
  • Haas Value
  • Red Bull’s hidden potential
  • young drivers and the musical chairs to come

Mercedes Dominance

Once again, and despite what various areas of the Press are predicting, Mercedes are dominating and by some margin.  There is a very good blog by JA here which matches my analysis with some interesting retro-analysis of the pre-season testing.  Save some massive engineering disasters in the remains of the season, Mercedes will clean up again.  If we want interest this year we will probably have to look in the 2nd and 3rd places of the Constructors Championship!  And interesting it will be.

2 Car Finishes

One of the reasons the competitive teams are finding it difficult to take the fight to Mercedes is that they have in the main not put 2 car finishes in.  Mercedes have put a lot of effort into reliability maybe even at the expense of performance if the Tifosi blogs are to be believed but it pays off as reliability is rewarded in the sport with huge points differences.

Haas Value

Looking at the Haas Value Analysis at only 2 races into the season shows you the power of their current form.  Minded also that they have only managed to bring one car home in each race too.  Imagine if this was repeated for 2 cars finishes going forwards?  As you can see in the overall Value chart, they are just piping Mercedes to 1st Place in the Value stakes already.

Red Bull Hidden Potential

I am not sure what Red Bull have done over the winter but they are the team to watch for 2nd place, never mind Ferrari!  Clearly with that we need to listen to the mood music for Ricciardo moving to another team maybe?  Again with my assessment head on I would not be surprised to Ricciardo moving to Ferrari next year, it is a predictable casting decision.

Young Drivers and the musical chairs to come

Which nicely moves us into the melee that will hit the sport from the early summer onwards, although there are hints in the press it is already starting.

If you assume that Raikkonen is retiring (not that mad an idea), then a whole cascade of events are possible.  Here is a strawman view after 2 races for comments:

  • Ricciardo to Ferrari?
  • Vestappen to Red Bull to replace Ricciardo?

There are clearly some more permutations to think about outside of these teams:

  • will Button retire?
  • will Alonso?
  • who will replace them? Vandoorne?
  • will Rosberg stay at Mercedes?

 

Something Interesting was said…….

Posted on by

Something unusual happened this week; somebody said something interesting and nothing much else was said.

Claire Williams said that this season was probably going to be interesting if nothing else because most drivers’ contracts were up for renewal in one shape or other this year.  I tried to do the research on this and amazingly the Internet was not great at delivering a collated set of data on this.  My last blog stated that we would be focusing on this aspect more this year so thank you Claire for the timely reminder.  If nothing else the fact that Nico Rosberg is up for review this year is an interest in itself!

Anyway I found some data which maybe a start so I will capture it here for reference as the season progresses.  The intruige will follow the season as we know until Spa/Monza when teams seems to go firm.  Well, except Wiliams of late, they seem to,have tied their plans down early and who can blame them on their budget!

So as far as Internet research goes the situation seems to be as follows:

Drivers Who Are In Final Year of Contract:

Raikonen

Rosberg

Button

Massa

Ricciardo

Bottas

Drivers Who Are Secure Beyond This Year:

Vettel – in year 2 of 3

Alonso – in year 2 of 3

Hamilton – in year 1 of 3

Hulkenburg- in year 1 of 2

This years main task is to predict who will fill the upcoming slot at:

  • Ferrari
  • Mercedes
  • McLaren
  • Red Bull
  • Williams (2 Slots)

and will Verstappen get an offer he can’t refuse?

So blind without data analysis or models of historic decision making I think the following will happen.  We will adjust it as the season and calculations are completed:

  • Button will retire (sadly)
  • Verstappen will be made an offer he cannot refuse by Ferrari
  • Raikonen will retire
  • Ricciardo to Mercedes
  • Bottas and Mass remain at Williams
  • Rosberg to Red Bull

Some 2014 Retro-Analysis going into 2016…..

Posted on by

It would be easy in all the excitement this week to have overlooked a curious story in The Mirror.

Blink and you may have missed it in all the squabbling over Qualifying Formats.

It immediately reminded me of the purpose of the data analysis model here at this website, ie. to use the freely available data to better understand F1 Strategic Decision Making.  It is easy to get distracted with the easy tasks of taking the latest data, adding it to the machine learning model an produce some charts which make the model easier to understand whilst at the same time forget that the whole reason we are going to this bother is so we can use it to better understand/preempt F1 Team decisions.

Back in 2014 when this work was at its embryonic state, we wanted to concentrate first on establishing a solid Value model for the teams as a whole.  Without a Value model, it was going to be difficult to understand how the drivers contributed to the Value as a result of their efforts and thus how the Teams would retain/trade them.  Because of the skew of effort, we merely took a punt at the driver trading that was taking place based on experience and the primitive figures the Value model was producing at the time.  The curious thing when I saw this article was it backed up some of the hypotheses we were notionally running at the time.  The data and the observed Performance and thus Value of Alonso suggested he was on the move, the questions was where to?  We were not convinced that Mercedes would do a swap deal, although Hamilton despite being on winning form was not happy with the way things had been managed at times.  When you are an asset like Hamilton who would not be tempted by Ferrari if under that pressure?  It is of course interesting that this story has emerged now and from Alonso!

Focussing back on Team Strategy it was all credit to Totto Wolf and probably Niki Lauder more so that the drivers were mentored back to the Mercedes’ main effort, something other teams should take note of.

It has also given me pointers for this years work behind the scenes on this White Paper.  Building on the solid foundation of the Value model, we will now start looking at historic and current drivers contracts and associated commercial outcomes balanced against the Value model.  More to follow in later blogs.