Tag Archives: Force India

and so it continues……

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It’s always good to have 3 races worth of data in the bag.  I think this is the first year in a long time where on the surface the season feels very different, well, if the media are to be believed.

It’s is different, but not so much as one would think when looking deeper into the data.  Now the Value charts are available, including the breakdown by team, things are probably a little clearer.  I think in summary the only big changes are a swap in fortunes between McLaren and Force India.  The other shocker (although not that shocking when last seasons symptoms are taken into account) is the current Value of Williams.  All this emboldens me to extend the model further to look deeper into the team dynamics and ‘casting’.  I won’t burden this blog with my thoughts, but suffice to say when you have a car powered by Mercedes and designed by Paddy Lowe, where else can you look for the current results?  Could the same be said for Force India?  At least in that team we can make some year on year comparisons with the people?  But further can it explain McLaren’s results too?  They can’t blame the engine anymore and you can’t help feeling that they should be doing better than they are?

I have published the current team Value analysis charts on the basis of last years end positions (which is normal practice).  However, ahead of the next race I will have to account for the change in fortunes for McLaren and Force India, it will just not be helpful to continue to publish them on the current assessed predictions.

So that just leaves with what is happening at the top?  It is certainly closer than it has been, but I am not sure by that much.  Whilst the data suggests Ferrari are in the lead by a very small margin, their trend is downwards on a fairly steady trajectory.  Mercedes on the other hand are slowly rising race on race, which suggests on balance Mercedes will win overall, but it will be close.

So the readjusted places and targets for the remains of this half of the season (which really describes what the season should look like, a close flight going on for 1/2, closely followed by a one horse race for third, 2 horse races for 4th and 5th with a large gap back to the rest):

1st with 2nd for Reference – Ferrari

2nd aiming for 1st – Mercedes

3rd aiming for 2nd – Red Bull

4th aiming for 3rd – McLaren and Renault

5th aiming for 4th – Torro Rosso and Haas

Rest aiming for 5th – Sauber, Williams and Force India

And finally my end of season predictions having mulled the data over:

1st – Mercedes (just, it will be close)

2nd – Ferrari (see above)

3rd – Red Bull (confident, and closer to Ferrari than last year)

4th – Renault (confident)

5th – McLaren (confident)

6th – Haas (confident)

7th – Torro Rosso (confident)

8th – Force India (confident)

9th – Sauber (close to)

10th – Williams (just)

Early Re-projection of the Numbers?

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UPDATE – All charts and assessments have now been updated in line with this post.

This is a job that is reserved for the summer break; reassessing whether the start of season projected team end positions are still valid.  Having just processed the data for the Monaco race I think it may be prudent to perform this task now for quite a few of the teams in order that the targets for the respective teams is meaningful going forwards.

In order to understand the dilemma this table should capture the mood music for the Team Value Analysis Charts to date (an admission at this stage is that I already had adjusted the Red Bull data projections from 2nd pushing 1st to 3rd pushing 2nd):

Mercedes – 1st with 2nd for context, will be changed to 2nd pushing 1st (yes, I am predicting that Mercedes will come 2nd!)

Red Bull – 3rd pushing 2nd (only above the 3rd line once this season), no further change as it was already implemented earlier in the season.

Ferrari – 3rd pushing 2nd (I really did doubt their abilities this season!), will be changed to 1st with 2nd for context (again, yes I am predicting that they will win, they have been above the 2nd line all season)

Force India – 4th pushing 3rd, no change (they have only been above the 4th line once this season however the long term trend seems to place them 4th)

Torro Rosso – 5th pushing 4th, no change (they have been above the 5th line all season)

Williams – 5th pushing 4th, change to Rest pushing 5th (Williams along with Ferrari are the big adjustments in this review.  How can this team which came 3rd not so long ago and currently has a strong car be in this position?  Casting?)

Haas – Rest pushing 5th, change to 5th pushing 4th (has been above the Rest line all season)

Renault – Rest pushing 5th, change to 5th pushing 4th (been above the Rest line 3 times so probably could have a fight with Haas for 6th in reality)

Sauber – Rest pushing 5th, no change (above the Rest line once so probably likely to beat MacLaren)

MacLaren – Rest pushing 5th, no change (yes it really is that bad for them)

The re-projections will be done as soon as possible and a short blog will be issued to let everyone know.

However, the end of season standings predictions are now (and those with * show where I think there is still some movement and fight to be had):

1 – Ferrari

2 – Mercedes

3 – Red Bull*

4 – Force India*

5 – Torro Rosso

6 – Haas

7 – Renault

8 – Williams

9 – Sauber

10 – MacLaren

 

2017 Change?

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As is the tradition, I have kept my thoughts internal until at least 3-4 races in, but I now feel ready to say something meaningful ahead of the 4th race.

As you may have seen some new charts have been constructed over the winter break.  The automation in R and the API to Plotly is very efficient.  We seem to be only held back by analytical ideas now.  The top page of the White Paper now has a team performance ratio breakdown which tells the story of the whole season in one go quite nicely.

R_Perf_Stacked17

On the Team Value pages we also have a nice visualisation of how closely matched the drivers are in the teams.  One to watch as the pundits speak through the season as sometimes things aren’t always what they seem.

So, I guess finally it may be worth a few words on what we have witnessed so far and whether the new 2017 regulations have really changed anything?

Whilst the Driver’s competition has a different dynamic this season (how long that will remain who knows), I am yet to be convinced how much will change for the teams as the season progresses.  Ferrari have no doubt improved the engineering offering but we have yet to see Red Bull at full tilt yet.  The most interesting part of the Team competition is probably in the 4-5th place area.  So far Force India are being very consistent and it would be great to see them maintain that position again.