Tag Archives: McLaren

and so it continues……

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It’s always good to have 3 races worth of data in the bag.  I think this is the first year in a long time where on the surface the season feels very different, well, if the media are to be believed.

It’s is different, but not so much as one would think when looking deeper into the data.  Now the Value charts are available, including the breakdown by team, things are probably a little clearer.  I think in summary the only big changes are a swap in fortunes between McLaren and Force India.  The other shocker (although not that shocking when last seasons symptoms are taken into account) is the current Value of Williams.  All this emboldens me to extend the model further to look deeper into the team dynamics and ‘casting’.  I won’t burden this blog with my thoughts, but suffice to say when you have a car powered by Mercedes and designed by Paddy Lowe, where else can you look for the current results?  Could the same be said for Force India?  At least in that team we can make some year on year comparisons with the people?  But further can it explain McLaren’s results too?  They can’t blame the engine anymore and you can’t help feeling that they should be doing better than they are?

I have published the current team Value analysis charts on the basis of last years end positions (which is normal practice).  However, ahead of the next race I will have to account for the change in fortunes for McLaren and Force India, it will just not be helpful to continue to publish them on the current assessed predictions.

So that just leaves with what is happening at the top?  It is certainly closer than it has been, but I am not sure by that much.  Whilst the data suggests Ferrari are in the lead by a very small margin, their trend is downwards on a fairly steady trajectory.  Mercedes on the other hand are slowly rising race on race, which suggests on balance Mercedes will win overall, but it will be close.

So the readjusted places and targets for the remains of this half of the season (which really describes what the season should look like, a close flight going on for 1/2, closely followed by a one horse race for third, 2 horse races for 4th and 5th with a large gap back to the rest):

1st with 2nd for Reference – Ferrari

2nd aiming for 1st – Mercedes

3rd aiming for 2nd – Red Bull

4th aiming for 3rd – McLaren and Renault

5th aiming for 4th – Torro Rosso and Haas

Rest aiming for 5th – Sauber, Williams and Force India

And finally my end of season predictions having mulled the data over:

1st – Mercedes (just, it will be close)

2nd – Ferrari (see above)

3rd – Red Bull (confident, and closer to Ferrari than last year)

4th – Renault (confident)

5th – McLaren (confident)

6th – Haas (confident)

7th – Torro Rosso (confident)

8th – Force India (confident)

9th – Sauber (close to)

10th – Williams (just)

A great new season for data

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As always it is too soon to make any sort of predictions/analysis worth quoting but looking at the numbers after Race 2 the 2018 season is already looking much different to previous years, more so in the middle runners.

A quick look at the ratio spread show that there is more evenness, but for how long this will last time will tell.  However it is a good sign of things to come.

I m not going to focus on the matters which have swamped the main media, ie. Ferrari vs. Mercedes, for me the telling signs in the data are McLaren’s current position and Williams’ demise?

I think China will start revealing the season’s secrets and here we will start publishing the all important Value charts.

Post Bahrain Analysis

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I am always cautious to say anything to definitive before the Spain event.  The numbers season on season suggest that that is when the technology and the teams start to settle.  On the assumption that no one is going to mess with qualifying further (who knows?) then it will remain the first analysis point.

However, it is an interesting season already and worthy of some comment.  This short blog will focus on:

  • Mercedes dominance
  • 2 car finishes
  • Haas Value
  • Red Bull’s hidden potential
  • young drivers and the musical chairs to come

Mercedes Dominance

Once again, and despite what various areas of the Press are predicting, Mercedes are dominating and by some margin.  There is a very good blog by JA here which matches my analysis with some interesting retro-analysis of the pre-season testing.  Save some massive engineering disasters in the remains of the season, Mercedes will clean up again.  If we want interest this year we will probably have to look in the 2nd and 3rd places of the Constructors Championship!  And interesting it will be.

2 Car Finishes

One of the reasons the competitive teams are finding it difficult to take the fight to Mercedes is that they have in the main not put 2 car finishes in.  Mercedes have put a lot of effort into reliability maybe even at the expense of performance if the Tifosi blogs are to be believed but it pays off as reliability is rewarded in the sport with huge points differences.

Haas Value

Looking at the Haas Value Analysis at only 2 races into the season shows you the power of their current form.  Minded also that they have only managed to bring one car home in each race too.  Imagine if this was repeated for 2 cars finishes going forwards?  As you can see in the overall Value chart, they are just piping Mercedes to 1st Place in the Value stakes already.

Red Bull Hidden Potential

I am not sure what Red Bull have done over the winter but they are the team to watch for 2nd place, never mind Ferrari!  Clearly with that we need to listen to the mood music for Ricciardo moving to another team maybe?  Again with my assessment head on I would not be surprised to Ricciardo moving to Ferrari next year, it is a predictable casting decision.

Young Drivers and the musical chairs to come

Which nicely moves us into the melee that will hit the sport from the early summer onwards, although there are hints in the press it is already starting.

If you assume that Raikkonen is retiring (not that mad an idea), then a whole cascade of events are possible.  Here is a strawman view after 2 races for comments:

  • Ricciardo to Ferrari?
  • Vestappen to Red Bull to replace Ricciardo?

There are clearly some more permutations to think about outside of these teams:

  • will Button retire?
  • will Alonso?
  • who will replace them? Vandoorne?
  • will Rosberg stay at Mercedes?