the settling of the sands again?

Posted on 13 May, 201813 May, 2018 by Nicholas Kell

As loyal readers will be aware, the data point of the Spanish race is always a marker in the sand in my mind. For whatever reason, the conclusion of the Spanish race generally sets my view on the teams future performance for the remains of the season. It would be interesting to understand why this is, but it seems to be a phenomena, albeit a helpful one.

I will write in more detail on the team’s individual analysis pages over the coming days, but it seems that my initial early season predictions are correlating to the list so far. Not sure how much longer this will hold out but I think the things to watch for are:

can Red Bull consistently sort themselves out to fight for 2nd place with Ferrari? (Even though the targets in the model for Ferrari are for 1st)
will Williams continue the depressed season? (On a side note I am ready Adrian Newey’s book and there are some interesting pieces of analysis of how the ‘casting’ and decisions are made. There is form for Williams making odd and self-inflicting wounds on the driver selection front)

Looking forwards Monaco is roulette for the data so I will relax until we have completed the Canadian event before anything more meaningful can be written up!

Early Re-projection of the Numbers?

Posted on 30 May, 201731 May, 2017 by Nicholas Kell

UPDATE – All charts and assessments have now been updated in line with this post.

This is a job that is reserved for the summer break; reassessing whether the start of season projected team end positions are still valid. Having just processed the data for the Monaco race I think it may be prudent to perform this task now for quite a few of the teams in order that the targets for the respective teams is meaningful going forwards.

In order to understand the dilemma this table should capture the mood music for the Team Value Analysis Charts to date (an admission at this stage is that I already had adjusted the Red Bull data projections from 2nd pushing 1st to 3rd pushing 2nd):

Mercedes – 1st with 2nd for context, will be changed to 2nd pushing 1st (yes, I am predicting that Mercedes will come 2nd!)

Red Bull – 3rd pushing 2nd (only above the 3rd line once this season), no further change as it was already implemented earlier in the season.

Ferrari – 3rd pushing 2nd (I really did doubt their abilities this season!), will be changed to 1st with 2nd for context (again, yes I am predicting that they will win, they have been above the 2nd line all season)

Force India – 4th pushing 3rd, no change (they have only been above the 4th line once this season however the long term trend seems to place them 4th)

Torro Rosso – 5th pushing 4th, no change (they have been above the 5th line all season)

Williams – 5th pushing 4th, change to Rest pushing 5th (Williams along with Ferrari are the big adjustments in this review. How can this team which came 3rd not so long ago and currently has a strong car be in this position? Casting?)

Haas – Rest pushing 5th, change to 5th pushing 4th (has been above the Rest line all season)

Renault – Rest pushing 5th, change to 5th pushing 4th (been above the Rest line 3 times so probably could have a fight with Haas for 6th in reality)

Sauber – Rest pushing 5th, no change (above the Rest line once so probably likely to beat MacLaren)

MacLaren – Rest pushing 5th, no change (yes it really is that bad for them)

The re-projections will be done as soon as possible and a short blog will be issued to let everyone know.

However, the end of season standings predictions are now (and those with * show where I think there is still some movement and fight to be had):

1 – Ferrari

2 – Mercedes

3 – Red Bull*

4 – Force India*

5 – Torro Rosso

6 – Haas

7 – Renault

8 – Williams

9 – Sauber

10 – MacLaren

2016 Mid-Season Thoughts

Posted on 15 August, 201615 August, 2016 by Nicholas Kell

With Spa only a week or so away and the data for the start of the season now well processed and understood it is worthy or a few words and maybe even a venture into predictions!

For me the real story throughout 2016 was that of Red Bull. I had felt early on they were looking like the number 2 team and as you can see from the Value analysis below they are pretty much there.

Red Bull Analysis 2016 Mid Season

It is mid season and I have reprojected all the target plots on the basis of revised end predictions as Red Bull were the only team that were exceeding their start season predicted finish. Therefore I recalculated on the basis of Red Bull finishing 2nd. I have also introduced a new plot too which I hope does not complicate the Value interpretation but feedback is always welcome. The extra plot is the target for the next place in the table so in the case of the Red Bull plot the dotted line is where they need to aim for 1st place. I have done it not because they could seriously win, but it provides some real context for their progress against the 2nd place line.

The image also shows the effect temporally of the switch of drivers following the Russian race. Despite Verstappen’s performance in Monaco, he has added nothing but value overall. I guess the guys at Red Bull have crystal balls?

Of course the move of Red Bull to 2nd is at the expense of Ferrari to 3rd. I have not published the Ferrari Value chart with the extra plot, but just with the reprojection you can see the context for their fall from grace:

Analysis of Team Ferrari Value Coefficient

They are only just hanging on to the 3rd place!

Beyond the top 3 there is a story worth following in the 4th place battle; that of Force India and Williams. Williams have had a miserable season and I reckon Force India will be taking that 4th place either at Spa or not long after. What a great result for Force India but it does beg the question as to what Williams need to do to improve?