I am always cautious to say anything to definitive before the Spain event.  The numbers season on season suggest that that is when the technology and the teams start to settle.  On the assumption that no one is going to mess with qualifying further (who knows?) then it will remain the first analysis point.

However, it is an interesting season already and worthy of some comment.  This short blog will focus on:

• Mercedes dominance
• 2 car finishes
• Haas Value
• Red Bull’s hidden potential
• young drivers and the musical chairs to come

Mercedes Dominance

Once again, and despite what various areas of the Press are predicting, Mercedes are dominating and by some margin.  There is a very good blog by JA here which matches my analysis with some interesting retro-analysis of the pre-season testing.  Save some massive engineering disasters in the remains of the season, Mercedes will clean up again.  If we want interest this year we will probably have to look in the 2nd and 3rd places of the Constructors Championship!  And interesting it will be.

2 Car Finishes

One of the reasons the competitive teams are finding it difficult to take the fight to Mercedes is that they have in the main not put 2 car finishes in.  Mercedes have put a lot of effort into reliability maybe even at the expense of performance if the Tifosi blogs are to be believed but it pays off as reliability is rewarded in the sport with huge points differences.

Haas Value

Looking at the Haas Value Analysis at only 2 races into the season shows you the power of their current form.  Minded also that they have only managed to bring one car home in each race too.  Imagine if this was repeated for 2 cars finishes going forwards?  As you can see in the overall Value chart, they are just piping Mercedes to 1st Place in the Value stakes already.

Red Bull Hidden Potential

I am not sure what Red Bull have done over the winter but they are the team to watch for 2nd place, never mind Ferrari!  Clearly with that we need to listen to the mood music for Ricciardo moving to another team maybe?  Again with my assessment head on I would not be surprised to Ricciardo moving to Ferrari next year, it is a predictable casting decision.

Young Drivers and the musical chairs to come

Which nicely moves us into the melee that will hit the sport from the early summer onwards, although there are hints in the press it is already starting.

If you assume that Raikkonen is retiring (not that mad an idea), then a whole cascade of events are possible.  Here is a strawman view after 2 races for comments:

• Ricciardo to Ferrari?
• Vestappen to Red Bull to replace Ricciardo?

There are clearly some more permutations to think about outside of these teams:

• will Button retire?
• will Alonso?
• who will replace them? Vandoorne?
• will Rosberg stay at Mercedes?