Tag Archives: Torro Rosso

and so it continues……

Posted on by

It’s always good to have 3 races worth of data in the bag.  I think this is the first year in a long time where on the surface the season feels very different, well, if the media are to be believed.

It’s is different, but not so much as one would think when looking deeper into the data.  Now the Value charts are available, including the breakdown by team, things are probably a little clearer.  I think in summary the only big changes are a swap in fortunes between McLaren and Force India.  The other shocker (although not that shocking when last seasons symptoms are taken into account) is the current Value of Williams.  All this emboldens me to extend the model further to look deeper into the team dynamics and ‘casting’.  I won’t burden this blog with my thoughts, but suffice to say when you have a car powered by Mercedes and designed by Paddy Lowe, where else can you look for the current results?  Could the same be said for Force India?  At least in that team we can make some year on year comparisons with the people?  But further can it explain McLaren’s results too?  They can’t blame the engine anymore and you can’t help feeling that they should be doing better than they are?

I have published the current team Value analysis charts on the basis of last years end positions (which is normal practice).  However, ahead of the next race I will have to account for the change in fortunes for McLaren and Force India, it will just not be helpful to continue to publish them on the current assessed predictions.

So that just leaves with what is happening at the top?  It is certainly closer than it has been, but I am not sure by that much.  Whilst the data suggests Ferrari are in the lead by a very small margin, their trend is downwards on a fairly steady trajectory.  Mercedes on the other hand are slowly rising race on race, which suggests on balance Mercedes will win overall, but it will be close.

So the readjusted places and targets for the remains of this half of the season (which really describes what the season should look like, a close flight going on for 1/2, closely followed by a one horse race for third, 2 horse races for 4th and 5th with a large gap back to the rest):

1st with 2nd for Reference – Ferrari

2nd aiming for 1st – Mercedes

3rd aiming for 2nd – Red Bull

4th aiming for 3rd – McLaren and Renault

5th aiming for 4th – Torro Rosso and Haas

Rest aiming for 5th – Sauber, Williams and Force India

And finally my end of season predictions having mulled the data over:

1st – Mercedes (just, it will be close)

2nd – Ferrari (see above)

3rd – Red Bull (confident, and closer to Ferrari than last year)

4th – Renault (confident)

5th – McLaren (confident)

6th – Haas (confident)

7th – Torro Rosso (confident)

8th – Force India (confident)

9th – Sauber (close to)

10th – Williams (just)

Early Re-projection of the Numbers?

Posted on by

UPDATE – All charts and assessments have now been updated in line with this post.

This is a job that is reserved for the summer break; reassessing whether the start of season projected team end positions are still valid.  Having just processed the data for the Monaco race I think it may be prudent to perform this task now for quite a few of the teams in order that the targets for the respective teams is meaningful going forwards.

In order to understand the dilemma this table should capture the mood music for the Team Value Analysis Charts to date (an admission at this stage is that I already had adjusted the Red Bull data projections from 2nd pushing 1st to 3rd pushing 2nd):

Mercedes – 1st with 2nd for context, will be changed to 2nd pushing 1st (yes, I am predicting that Mercedes will come 2nd!)

Red Bull – 3rd pushing 2nd (only above the 3rd line once this season), no further change as it was already implemented earlier in the season.

Ferrari – 3rd pushing 2nd (I really did doubt their abilities this season!), will be changed to 1st with 2nd for context (again, yes I am predicting that they will win, they have been above the 2nd line all season)

Force India – 4th pushing 3rd, no change (they have only been above the 4th line once this season however the long term trend seems to place them 4th)

Torro Rosso – 5th pushing 4th, no change (they have been above the 5th line all season)

Williams – 5th pushing 4th, change to Rest pushing 5th (Williams along with Ferrari are the big adjustments in this review.  How can this team which came 3rd not so long ago and currently has a strong car be in this position?  Casting?)

Haas – Rest pushing 5th, change to 5th pushing 4th (has been above the Rest line all season)

Renault – Rest pushing 5th, change to 5th pushing 4th (been above the Rest line 3 times so probably could have a fight with Haas for 6th in reality)

Sauber – Rest pushing 5th, no change (above the Rest line once so probably likely to beat MacLaren)

MacLaren – Rest pushing 5th, no change (yes it really is that bad for them)

The re-projections will be done as soon as possible and a short blog will be issued to let everyone know.

However, the end of season standings predictions are now (and those with * show where I think there is still some movement and fight to be had):

1 – Ferrari

2 – Mercedes

3 – Red Bull*

4 – Force India*

5 – Torro Rosso

6 – Haas

7 – Renault

8 – Williams

9 – Sauber

10 – MacLaren

 

2016 Mid-Season Thoughts

Posted on by

With Spa only a week or so away and the data for the start of the season now well processed and understood it is worthy or a few words and maybe even a venture into predictions!

For me the real story throughout 2016 was that of Red Bull.  I had felt early on they were looking like the number 2 team and as you can see from the Value analysis below they are pretty much there.

Red Bull Analysis 2016 Mid Season

Red Bull Analysis 2016 Mid Season

It is mid season and I have reprojected all the target plots on the basis of revised end predictions as Red Bull were the only team that were exceeding their start season predicted finish.  Therefore I recalculated on the basis of Red Bull finishing 2nd.  I have also introduced a new plot too which I hope does not complicate the Value interpretation but feedback is always welcome.  The extra plot is the target for the next place in the table so in the case of the Red Bull plot the dotted line is where they need to aim for 1st place.  I have done it not because they could seriously win, but it provides some real context for their progress against the 2nd place line.

The image also shows the effect temporally of the switch of drivers following the Russian race.  Despite Verstappen’s performance in Monaco, he has added nothing but value overall.  I guess the guys at Red Bull have crystal balls?

Of course the move of Red Bull to 2nd is at the expense of Ferrari to 3rd.  I have not published the Ferrari Value chart with the extra plot, but just with the reprojection you can see the context for their fall from grace:

Analysis of Team Ferrari Value CoefficientThey are only just hanging on to the 3rd place!

Beyond the top 3 there is a story worth following in the 4th place battle; that of Force India and Williams.  Williams have had a miserable season and I reckon Force India will be taking that 4th place either at Spa or not long after.  What a great result for Force India but it does beg the question as to what Williams need to do to improve?

Post Bahrain Analysis

Posted on by

I am always cautious to say anything to definitive before the Spain event.  The numbers season on season suggest that that is when the technology and the teams start to settle.  On the assumption that no one is going to mess with qualifying further (who knows?) then it will remain the first analysis point.

However, it is an interesting season already and worthy of some comment.  This short blog will focus on:

  • Mercedes dominance
  • 2 car finishes
  • Haas Value
  • Red Bull’s hidden potential
  • young drivers and the musical chairs to come

Mercedes Dominance

Once again, and despite what various areas of the Press are predicting, Mercedes are dominating and by some margin.  There is a very good blog by JA here which matches my analysis with some interesting retro-analysis of the pre-season testing.  Save some massive engineering disasters in the remains of the season, Mercedes will clean up again.  If we want interest this year we will probably have to look in the 2nd and 3rd places of the Constructors Championship!  And interesting it will be.

2 Car Finishes

One of the reasons the competitive teams are finding it difficult to take the fight to Mercedes is that they have in the main not put 2 car finishes in.  Mercedes have put a lot of effort into reliability maybe even at the expense of performance if the Tifosi blogs are to be believed but it pays off as reliability is rewarded in the sport with huge points differences.

Haas Value

Looking at the Haas Value Analysis at only 2 races into the season shows you the power of their current form.  Minded also that they have only managed to bring one car home in each race too.  Imagine if this was repeated for 2 cars finishes going forwards?  As you can see in the overall Value chart, they are just piping Mercedes to 1st Place in the Value stakes already.

Red Bull Hidden Potential

I am not sure what Red Bull have done over the winter but they are the team to watch for 2nd place, never mind Ferrari!  Clearly with that we need to listen to the mood music for Ricciardo moving to another team maybe?  Again with my assessment head on I would not be surprised to Ricciardo moving to Ferrari next year, it is a predictable casting decision.

Young Drivers and the musical chairs to come

Which nicely moves us into the melee that will hit the sport from the early summer onwards, although there are hints in the press it is already starting.

If you assume that Raikkonen is retiring (not that mad an idea), then a whole cascade of events are possible.  Here is a strawman view after 2 races for comments:

  • Ricciardo to Ferrari?
  • Vestappen to Red Bull to replace Ricciardo?

There are clearly some more permutations to think about outside of these teams:

  • will Button retire?
  • will Alonso?
  • who will replace them? Vandoorne?
  • will Rosberg stay at Mercedes?