Are the Numbers Working?

Posted on 6 October, 20166 October, 2016 by Nicholas Kell

We are well through the season and the final results are pretty tight to call. My standing questions still remain that the model tries to address and they are:

will the team final standings settle on the mid-season predictions?
how early in the season does the model give signals to the overall competitiveness of a team?

Before I give some thought to the two bullets, let’s just remind ourselves of the conceptual approach to the model that has been used this season to calculate the ‘Value‘ Coefficient. At the beginning of the season we nominally placed the teams in a predicted end of season order and then calculated the race on race Value target that each race Value Coefficient could be measured against. We could have wasted much time trying to work this out but I simplified the matter by just placing them in the order they finished the last season knowing that mid-season we could reflect on matters, re-order if necessary and then recalculate the respective targets and let it run to the season end.

Fairly early on in the season some very obvious signals were emerging which suggested the following:

Red Bull and Force India were the only teams meeting or exceeding their Value Targets. They were originally predicted to be placed 3rd and 5th respectively come season end.
Ferrari and Williams were consistently well under performing their Value Targets. They were originally predicted to be placed 2nd and 3rd respectively.

I was sufficiently emboldened by the time Verstappen moved to Red Bull for me to place a £50 wager on Red Bull coming 2nd in the Championship, which now seems to make more sense now than it may have back in the season!

Then came the summer break and the review. I did the following:

moved Red Bull to 2nd and Ferrari to 3rd
moved Force India to 4th and Williams to 5th
recalculated the Value Target Values
monitor as the season progressed

If I had to call it now I would say the following with some confidence:

Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari, Force India, Williams, McLaren…….

Why?

Mercedes does not need further explanation the only question that remains is which driver will win and that is not really the main objective of this model.

Red Bull have not only had to be moved up in the model, but looking at the results on the revised targets indicates they are more than consistently achieving a 2nd place performance. I would go further, I do not think it will even be close to Ferrari!

Ferrari despite all the hype and heritage it is clear now (as is probably has been most of the season) that they are not best of the rest. I think the ‘Casting’ phenomena will be well explored in this team going into next season. I am convinced that the car is good but that it is the mix of key individuals that has explained the overall result for this team.

Force India are not quite on top of their well deserved current 4th place yet, but I would be very surprised if this was lost by season end. This team showed glimmers of this level of performance last year but didn’t quite beat Williams as a result, but this year has clearly been different. It is so good to see a team like Force India perform so well on the budget they have and their 2nd place in our Value Chart is no surprise.

Williams always promise so much of late and have just not delivered. Like Ferrari the ‘Casting’ factor will reveal much going into next year. It is hard to believe that this team was best of the rest only a few seasons ago. What has gone wrong? Is it the car, the drivers, the senior leadership or a combination of all these things. They must be asking the same questions. Should Force India finish ahead of them come season end then it will be interesting to compare ‘Casting’ analysis as it will not be money that delivered the difference.

Look Ahead to 2017

My next blog will look at what we are prototyping for next year to move the model onwards. I will introduce the ‘Casting’ factor to the Value Coefficient which I hope will be the final step towards really understanding how the teams performance is influenced by the mix of individuals in key team posts over time.

2016 Mid-Season Thoughts

Posted on 15 August, 201615 August, 2016 by Nicholas Kell

With Spa only a week or so away and the data for the start of the season now well processed and understood it is worthy or a few words and maybe even a venture into predictions!

For me the real story throughout 2016 was that of Red Bull. I had felt early on they were looking like the number 2 team and as you can see from the Value analysis below they are pretty much there.

Red Bull Analysis 2016 Mid Season

It is mid season and I have reprojected all the target plots on the basis of revised end predictions as Red Bull were the only team that were exceeding their start season predicted finish. Therefore I recalculated on the basis of Red Bull finishing 2nd. I have also introduced a new plot too which I hope does not complicate the Value interpretation but feedback is always welcome. The extra plot is the target for the next place in the table so in the case of the Red Bull plot the dotted line is where they need to aim for 1st place. I have done it not because they could seriously win, but it provides some real context for their progress against the 2nd place line.

The image also shows the effect temporally of the switch of drivers following the Russian race. Despite Verstappen’s performance in Monaco, he has added nothing but value overall. I guess the guys at Red Bull have crystal balls?

Of course the move of Red Bull to 2nd is at the expense of Ferrari to 3rd. I have not published the Ferrari Value chart with the extra plot, but just with the reprojection you can see the context for their fall from grace:

Analysis of Team Ferrari Value Coefficient

They are only just hanging on to the 3rd place!

Beyond the top 3 there is a story worth following in the 4th place battle; that of Force India and Williams. Williams have had a miserable season and I reckon Force India will be taking that 4th place either at Spa or not long after. What a great result for Force India but it does beg the question as to what Williams need to do to improve?

Post Bahrain Analysis

Posted on 7 April, 20167 April, 2016 by Nicholas Kell

I am always cautious to say anything to definitive before the Spain event. The numbers season on season suggest that that is when the technology and the teams start to settle. On the assumption that no one is going to mess with qualifying further (who knows?) then it will remain the first analysis point.

However, it is an interesting season already and worthy of some comment. This short blog will focus on:

Mercedes dominance
2 car finishes
Haas Value
Red Bull’s hidden potential
young drivers and the musical chairs to come

Mercedes Dominance

Once again, and despite what various areas of the Press are predicting, Mercedes are dominating and by some margin. There is a very good blog by JA here which matches my analysis with some interesting retro-analysis of the pre-season testing. Save some massive engineering disasters in the remains of the season, Mercedes will clean up again. If we want interest this year we will probably have to look in the 2nd and 3rd places of the Constructors Championship! And interesting it will be.

2 Car Finishes

One of the reasons the competitive teams are finding it difficult to take the fight to Mercedes is that they have in the main not put 2 car finishes in. Mercedes have put a lot of effort into reliability maybe even at the expense of performance if the Tifosi blogs are to be believed but it pays off as reliability is rewarded in the sport with huge points differences.

Haas Value

Looking at the Haas Value Analysis at only 2 races into the season shows you the power of their current form. Minded also that they have only managed to bring one car home in each race too. Imagine if this was repeated for 2 cars finishes going forwards? As you can see in the overall Value chart, they are just piping Mercedes to 1st Place in the Value stakes already.

Red Bull Hidden Potential

I am not sure what Red Bull have done over the winter but they are the team to watch for 2nd place, never mind Ferrari! Clearly with that we need to listen to the mood music for Ricciardo moving to another team maybe? Again with my assessment head on I would not be surprised to Ricciardo moving to Ferrari next year, it is a predictable casting decision.

Young Drivers and the musical chairs to come

Which nicely moves us into the melee that will hit the sport from the early summer onwards, although there are hints in the press it is already starting.

If you assume that Raikkonen is retiring (not that mad an idea), then a whole cascade of events are possible. Here is a strawman view after 2 races for comments:

Ricciardo to Ferrari?
Vestappen to Red Bull to replace Ricciardo?

There are clearly some more permutations to think about outside of these teams:

will Button retire?
will Alonso?
who will replace them? Vandoorne?
will Rosberg stay at Mercedes?

Something Interesting was said…….

Posted on 15 March, 201618 March, 2016 by Nicholas Kell

Something unusual happened this week; somebody said something interesting and nothing much else was said.

Claire Williams said that this season was probably going to be interesting if nothing else because most drivers’ contracts were up for renewal in one shape or other this year. I tried to do the research on this and amazingly the Internet was not great at delivering a collated set of data on this. My last blog stated that we would be focusing on this aspect more this year so thank you Claire for the timely reminder. If nothing else the fact that Nico Rosberg is up for review this year is an interest in itself!

Anyway I found some data which maybe a start so I will capture it here for reference as the season progresses. The intruige will follow the season as we know until Spa/Monza when teams seems to go firm. Well, except Wiliams of late, they seem to,have tied their plans down early and who can blame them on their budget!

So as far as Internet research goes the situation seems to be as follows:

Drivers Who Are In Final Year of Contract:

Raikonen

Rosberg

Button

Massa

Ricciardo

Bottas

Drivers Who Are Secure Beyond This Year:

Vettel – in year 2 of 3

Alonso – in year 2 of 3

Hamilton – in year 1 of 3

Hulkenburg- in year 1 of 2

This years main task is to predict who will fill the upcoming slot at:

Ferrari
Mercedes
McLaren
Red Bull
Williams (2 Slots)

and will Verstappen get an offer he can’t refuse?

So blind without data analysis or models of historic decision making I think the following will happen. We will adjust it as the season and calculations are completed:

Button will retire (sadly)
Verstappen will be made an offer he cannot refuse by Ferrari
Raikonen will retire
Ricciardo to Mercedes
Bottas and Mass remain at Williams
Rosberg to Red Bull